How much is the rookie nomination worth…"Jo Sangwoo's trade." I looked into it
How much is the rookie nomination worth…"Jo Sangwoo's trade." I looked into it
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SBS Sports Reporting Department Night Rescue reporters look at baseball from a different perspective every week.
With the end of 2024, another massive trade has been made. Kia, which has won the Korean Series title for the first time in seven years this year, has declared its bid to win the title for the second consecutive year, and acquired Cho Sang-woo from Kiwoom. Kia paid a total of 1 billion won (930,000 dollars) for two nominations including its 10th pick in the first round and its 40th pick in the fourth round.
Since the KBO board allowed the transaction of nomination rights in April 2020, there have been a total of 14 trades in the league. Two of them recently included two nomination rights. In particular, the trade of nomination rights has become a concept that is no longer unfamiliar to baseball fans, especially with Kiwoom, who is active in securing nomination rights.
For baseball fans, the minor problem with such trade rights is that it is difficult to calculate the profit or loss right now. This is because there was no discussion about how much the trade rights were worth. In fact, the general public opinion of baseball fans regarding Cho Sang-woo's trade was that KIA, which declared "Win Now," made a smart move, but there were also some opinions that both teams were win-win, or that Kiwoom sold Cho Sang-woo, who had a year left until the FA, quickly.
But is there really no way to measure the value of a draft pick? After analyzing players who have been drafted over the years, Baseball Suda evaluated draft picks for the first time in Korea by combining draft data from 2014 when 10 teams participated in the draft with players' WAR.
The biggest problem in this attempt was that the first draft, which was supposed to prioritize prospects in the region, was maintained in the 2014-2022 draft, rather than the full-scale draft, which was decided in order of players' values. Therefore, "Baseball Suda" rearranged the draft since 2014 under the assumption that "the prospects who are considered more outstanding are more likely to receive a down payment" regardless of the order of the nomination.
Ahn Woo-jin, who received the highest down payment (600 million won) among 110 people selected in the 2018 draft, was regarded as No. 1 in 1R, and Moon Dong-ju, who joined Hanwha for 500 million won in the 2022 draft, was regarded as No. 1 in 1R. If it was difficult to rank because there were several players who received the same down payment in the same order (if the 6th to 12th places all received the same down payment), we compromised by adding all of those players to average them.
Value of 1 = 1.53 = 2024 Hyungwoo Choi?
1R No. 1, the brightest prospect with the highest down payment in the draft, was also worth a lot. Naturally, with all the players on the first-team stage, the brightest star among them was Samsung's starting pitcher Won Tae-in (350 million, tied for first in the 2019 draft). Won, who has been on the mound for the first team since his first year as a rookie, accumulated a WAR of 25.06 over six seasons, recording an average of 4.18 per year. In terms of impact, Ahn Woo-jin (600 million, No. 1 in the 2018 draft) of Kiwoom, who is ahead of Won Tae-in, and Kim Taek-yeon (350 million, tied for first in the 2024 draft), who won this year's Rookie of the Year award.
Of course, some players didn't make it easy for them to show off their talents. In fact, Doosan's Kim Dae-han (350 million, tied for first in the 2019 draft), who is the only pure hitter to be named in the 1R position, has a WAR of -1.19 for four seasons since 2019, and Ryu Hee-woon, who was first named in KT's special designation for a new team in 2014, has retired from active duty after building a WAR of -0.57 for seven seasons.
The cumulative WAR of 15 players, which can be considered the highest rank, including joint first place, was 105.31 and the average WAR was 1.53. Last season, the player with the most similar record was Choi Hyung-woo (1.54), Kia's designated hitter. Considering that the service time to acquire the FA is seven to eight years, the draft 1R No. 1 pick is worth keeping this year's Golden Glove winner Choi Hyung-woo for that period even on average.
Number 10 and 40. You have to scratch it to know?
In addition to 1R No. 1, "Baseball Suda" estimated the value of 1R No. 10 and 4R No. 40 traded in this trade. The difficulty that occurred in this case was that there were many players who received similar down payments from the middle of 1R to the beginning of the second round, and from the middle of 4R to the beginning of the fifth round. As explained earlier, we used a method of adding all the players who received the same down payment to make an average, and as a result, far more subjects (1R No. 10: 40 / 4R No. 40: 101) were included in this category than 1R No. 15 players.
Among the nominees for the 10th pick, Park Se-woong (200 million, tied for 6th in the 2014 draft), a starter who was drafted by KT in 2014 and traded to Lotte, was the most valuable. He recorded a total of 30.55 WARs over 10 years, and he accumulated an average of 3.06 WARs per year. 메이저사이트 This was followed by Kim Joo-won of NC (tied for 10th in the 2021 draft), who has grown into a national shortstop, and Jung Hae-young (tied for 7th in the 2020 draft) of KIA. On the other hand, Kiwoom Park Joo-hong (200 million, tied for 7th in the 2020 draft), who has yet to reveal his true value, left a regret as he recorded a -1.6 WAR over five seasons.
Of the 40 nominees close to the top 10, not a single player made their first-team debut. Their cumulative WAR was 94.13 and the annual average was 0.55.